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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.