How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.